Don't just sit there like a bump on a log waiting to just place your bets on the Chiefs on Sunday night. Get in on Sunday's afternoon action with some of the best bets we see for Week 9.
As a 34-year-old man — and a ~29-year fan of the NFL, specifically the Kansas City Chiefs — I still can't decide how I feel about bye weeks for those Chiefs. While it is nice being able to sit back and absorb football watching on Youtube in a near fully vegetative state, to steal a line from my fellow Charles (Dickens), it is the best of times, but also the worst of times. Relaxation is fantastic, but no Chiefs football is certainly a form of punishment.
Were there many good games to consume? Not really, unless you're a fan of what's turned into the most depressing division in the NFL - the NFC South. But there were certainly some good things that we got to witness last week in the complete absence of Chiefs-related hypertension.
The Raiders got absolutely mangled by an Andy Dalton-drove Saints team. It would appear the Raiders are staring down a franchise-altering decision at the end of 2022: Cut Derek Carr by February 15 (3 days after Super Bowl 57) and pay just $5.1 million in dead cap money, or stick with the emo-band lead man and pay him — *gulp* — $32.9 million in 2023. Rebuild or remain irrelevant?
The 49ers, coming off of an absolute whooping at the hands of our Chiefs, turned around and demolished the Rams. This made me, and I'm sure a couple of you, feel improved about the Week 12 matchup we have right around the corner with the house of cards that Stan Kroenke built. The Browns took it to the Bengals on Monday Night Football, proving to the world that Joe Burrow without Ja'Marr Chase is the equivalent of Linus without his blanket.
Are some of these reasons to vicariously celebrate pettily? Absolutely. But, as Julius Campbell once famously told Gerry Bertier, "Attitude reflects leadership, Captain." If we can get on board with Petty Pat running amuck on any and all opponents that have previously done him wrong, then I can certainly endorse the pettiness of Chiefs Kingdom (and myself) rooting for the demise of opponents for which we hold an elevated degree of disdain for in our collective hearts.
Enough reflection. We're on to Week 9. Just like a down-on-his-karma gambler who finally wins a 6-piece 맥스벳 parlay after months of bankrolling their favorite sportsbook's free play promotions with their losses, I'm here after the bye week to declare that we are, in fact, very back. What trends are we watching heading into the back half of the 2022 season? Well, it's about time for the dogs to go back to being all bark and no bite. Going back to 2015, underdog cover percentages have traditionally dropped after the completion of Week 8. From 2015 to 2021 in Weeks 1-8, underdogs were covering at a 55.6% success rate. That bumps up nicely to the 56.1% win rate ATS that dogs have experienced so far in 2022 in Weeks 1-8.
What happens starting in Week 9? Well if history holds up, which it traditionally does when you're looking at a sample set this large, the underdogs should drop off to a point where we get back to more of a 50/50 feel. From 2015 to 2021 in Week 9 through the end of the season, underdogs covered 50.4% of spreads - a 5.2% decline from Weeks 1-8. Unless the dogs just stay hungrier in 2022, the trends would lead me to believe that we're barreling towards a world where favorites are pulling even in the ATS battle.
Is that going to stop me from picking a couple of dogs this week? Absolutely not. In fact, I have a road dog AND a home dog for you. As always, I'm not making any picks for Sunday night's matchup between the Tennessee Titans and the Kansas City Chiefs because even though I bet with my chest, I don't include my heart in that equation. Here are my 4 favorite plays for Sunday's NFL action.
Baltimore Ravens at New Orleans Saints - Under 47.5
You might be saying, "Charles, what are you thinking? The Saints' overs are 5-3 this season!" Yes, they are, but that's a loaded metric.
Saints games have been going over on the point total more often than not this season, but the lines have been a whole lot lower than where this line is set at for Sunday's matchup with Baltimore. New Orleans totals overall this year have averaged 43.5 벳365 points per game, and the averages in the games that they have hit over on have been even lower at 43.3. The three Saints games in which the under has hit? The average total was 44. So, yes, New Orleans has been an overs factory this season, but the totals outside of their Week 1 48 over/under (which was a crap shoot and an under) against the Raiders have been a full four points lower than the line for this week.
Baltimore can be explosive though, right? Lamar Jackson can pop off at any moment! Well, yes. But I'd challenge you to take a look at Baltimore's injury report. No J.K. Dobbins. No Rashad Bateman. Mark Andrews is questionable with knee and shoulder injuries, and Gus Edwards is in the same boat. Top that off with the fact that they'll be squaring off with the Red Rifle himself Andy Dalton on Sunday and you've got to hammer the under on this one.
Chicago Bears at Miami Dolphins - Over 45.5
In games where Tua Tagovailoa has started in 2022, the Dolphins offense has looked inconsistently explosive but has put up points regardless. They are averaging 26.6 points per game in those contests and are 5-1. Going up against a Chicago defense that has in back-to-back weeks traded away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith — their two best defensive players — you have to expect Miami to do their part to push this total over.
Additionally, the Bears' offense has actually looked like it has caught some traction in the last two weeks. Justin Fields actually looks like he might be "that person" for Chicago, and they've put up 33 points in a win against New England and 29 points against the vaunted Cowboys defense in a blowout loss last week. I'm not saying Chicago can stop Miami, but I'm also not saying that Miami can stop Chicago. Brilliant recipe for hitting the over in this one. It will be interesting to see how the new pieces fit here: Chase Claypool in Chicago, and Bradley Chubb and Jeff Wilson in Miami.
Carolina Panthers +7 at Cincinnati Bengals
I would take the exact opposite on this line if Ja'Marr Chase were healthy, but this one seems like it could be too easy with Chase out. Carolina has been not great against the spread so far in 2022 at 3-5 on the season, but they've covered in each of the two games since Matt Rhule was fired and Steve Wilkes took over as interim head coach. They're a D.J. Moore helmet toss away from being 2-0 straight up in those games as well.
This is a gut pick because my reasoning is almost completely intangible, but hear me out, please. The Panthers are nearly in 2021 Raiders territory here, minus the obvious tragedy: A coach fired mid-season and an underperforming team rallies around an interim coach that the players seem to love. You know what you get when you mix those two things together? A chippy football team. They're frisky. Big Cat, of Barstool Sports fame, also astutely pointed out on Pardon My Take a couple of weeks ago that Steve Wilkes is a native of Charlotte. You have some very real community-centered magic happening in Carolina right before your eyes here... MORE INFO
Will the Panthers cover? I think so. But, there's also the chance that Joe Burrow finds Tyler Boyd and Tee Higgins for a combined 250 and 3 TD and the Bengals rip them to shreds. But who knows? Everyone expected the Panthers to be sellers at the trade deadline, and outside of CMC to the 49ers, they kept their entire squad intact. They're still theoretically in the hunt in the NFC South, so they still have something to play for. I like Panthers +7 on Sunday.
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